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汉译英参赛原文
区块链
区块链,与其说是一种技术,不如说是一个思维方式。
从技术层面看,区块链和之前存在的IT技术之间没有显著的技术壁垒,并无革新性的进步。但从思维方式看,区块链的核心理念“去中心化”——即通过全体用户的共识消除中间环节,实现用户之间直接的信息、价值交换——这想法自农耕社会结束以来已经多年未见了,算是有点复古的新意。
很多人会跳出来说:这正是区块链革命性的所在,它能让并不互信的用户之间,基于区块链的“真实性、不可篡改性”达成共识,做到“去信用化”。换言之,只要隔着区块链,对面的坏人就无法作恶。
若论混淆概念扰乱视听,区块链的炒作是我见过最明目张胆的。
但凡骗术,必不能让人一眼看透。放在古代,装神弄鬼展示异象乃是“大师们”惯用的手法;时至今日,骗子们转而用“高科技”粉饰套路。
几天前有人向我安利一个二手车项目ICO,号称能通过区块链的“机器信用”,让买卖双方直接匹配供求,确保信息透明,交易公平,消除中间商差价。听完天花乱坠的忽悠,我问道:“即便区块链能确保链上信息不被篡改,那谁来保证卖家上传的车况信息一开始就是真实的?”说的再直白一些,用虚拟币买到的实体商品,就一定不会是假货次货吗?
来者无言以对。
然而,就是这样侮辱智商的项目,竟然已经有投资人出钱抢份额了。不由感叹,ICO真是一块试金石。
拨开区块链看似深奥的“高科技”面纱,究其背后的逻辑,充其量只是个保证信息安全的加密共享系统,可惜的是,信息安全和共享机制从来都不是信用管理的关注点。
区块链的拥趸们会说:如果一辆车从出厂起,所有事故、里程、保养信息全部真实地共享在区块链上,那就能有效控制信用风险。
这看似很美好,但实际上完全无厘头。
打个比方,A修理厂会如实共享修理报告,而B厂会帮忙粉饰报告,抑或根本不共享,那么有心以次充好的二手车卖家,会把泡过水的汽车拉到哪家去修呢?
说得更专业些,实体经济信用管理流程中难度最大的一环无非就是对原始数据真实性、准确性和完备性的验证(这个工作在金融业内被称为“尽职调查”),这是信用管理产生价值的源泉,要是这个难关被攻克了,普通互联网技术就完全可以胜任数据传输、储存、加密和共享的功能,并非区块链不可。
从另一个角度看,如果一个主体花费心血完成了尽职调查,他完全可以凭借信息不对称性进行套利。这个简单的道理是金融业和其他一切中介业务获得收益的理论依据,而中介机构的专业性和高效性是支持其社会存在的现实依据。
区块链理念无视这些基本的经济逻辑,试图通过用户直接交易(P2P)的方式驱除中间人,这极大地增加了交易节点,降低了交易的专业性,注定只能是个乌托邦式的空想。
综上,仅凭区块链技术不可能满足实体经济对信用风险管理的要求,所谓的“去信用化”只是一个纯粹的忽悠。
回想当年的郁金香,芬芳迷人,赏心悦目,看似非常美好;众人趋之若鹜,一株难求,造富奇迹不胜枚举。
但是出来混,迟早是要还的。
英译汉参赛原文
Welcome to the wingbot
Tomorrow’s squadron leaders will be accompanied by drones.
Will future combat aircraft needpilots? At least part of the answer can be found 400km north of Farnborough, near Preston, Lancashire. Warton Aerodrome is the site ofBritain'snearest equivalent to Lockheed Martin's celebrated Skunk Works—a research anddevelopment facility run by BAE Systems, the country's largest aerospace and defencecontractor. Inside a high-security building called 31 Hanger sits Taranis, anaircraft named after the Celtic god of thunder.
Taranis looks like something outof “Star Wars”. It is about the size of a small jet fighter, but is shaped likea flying wing. It is an unmanned, stealthy combat drone. Like most militarydrones it can be operated, via a secure data link, by a pilot sitting in acontrol centre on the ground. Taranis, however, can also be let off its digitalleash and allowed to think for itself using artificially intelligent automatedsystems. Left to its own devices, Taranis can take off, find its way to acombat zone, select a target, attack said target with missiles and then findits way home and land. A ground pilot would be needed only to keep an eye onevents and take control if there was a problem.
Thunder follows Lightning
Removing the pilot, together withthe systems required for a human being to fly a fighter aircraft and remainalive during the gut-wrenching manoeuvres this involves, has many advantages--not least of them, cost. A manned version of Taranis, were one to be built,would be twice the size and twice the price. The current prototype is thoughtto have set BAE back by around £185m($244m). That is cheap for whatis a one-off experimental prototype. The F-35, a ten-country effort led byLockheed Martin, is reckoned to be the most expensive military weapons systemin history. Some $50bn was spent developing the aircraft, which cost around $100m each.
The good news for pilots is thateven in drone-heavy air forces they will still have a job-though not necessarilyin the air. Many will be employed supervising drones from the ground. Others,though, will indeed remain flying for, as Michael Christie, BAE's head of airstrategy, observes, in the future pilotless and piloted fighter aircraft willoperate together.
A human being who can makedecisions will always be needed somewhere in the system, Mr Christie reckons.And in some cases it would be best if that person was in the aerial thick ofthings. Just as fighter pilots now fly with wingmen alongside them, a singlepilot could fly with a number of combat drones, similar to Taranis, as his“wingbots”. The drones would operate autonomously but respond to a pilot'scommand. They might be used to reconnoitre an area or attack it, permitting themanned aircraft to hold back.
The idea of people flying information with drones is being explored in several other countries, too. Lastyear Lockheed Martin's research engineers converted an F-16 fighter into anunmanned drone, complete with various anti-collision systems, and flew italongside a manned fighter to carry out ground attacks on a test range.Japanis also looking at using drone squadronsto accompany piloted aircraft. Japanese officials say the drones couldundertake defensive twists and turns at gforces so high that a human beingcould not withstand them, and thus be used to divert incoming missiles awayfrom a manned fighter.Chinais also developing a combat drone known as Dark Sword, which might similarly beused in conjunction with manned fighter jets.
This vision of a team offull-sized drones with a single human mind in charge gives the term “squadronleader” a whole new meaning. It also requires new technology, some of which isprefigured in the F-35. This aircraft is a massive information system, in whichthe amount of data generated by its sensors is beyond anything a human beingcould take in, so the aircraft's computers dish up only what a pilot needs toknow, when he needs to know it. Information relevant to the flight at anyparticular time is presented on touchscreens in the cockpit and as imagesprojected within the pilot's helmet. His vision is improved further by camerasembedded in the aircraft's skin, allowing him to “see” through its structure.That way he can spot anything which might otherwise be obscured-even thingsdirectly below.
This information feed alsoextends to other manned aircraft, to reconnaissance drones and to groundforces. Instead of attacking a heavily defended position himself, an F-35 pilotcould, for example, summon a missile strike from a ship. Eventually, thisinformation feed will extend to his receiving data from, and issuing orders to,accompanying combat drones.
All these extra data meanmilitary aviators of the future are likely to be even more reliant than today'sare on their helmets. BAE has an experimental system in which almost all thephysical instruments and controls in a cockpit have been replaced by virtualones projected into the pilot's helmet. The pilot can reach out to touch oroperate these controls as if they were in physical form, with sensorsrecognising from his movements what he is trying to do. This could mean thatwhen an aircraft's flight systems need updating, it is the pilot's helmetrather than the aircraft itself that is revised.
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